The potential for Donald Trump to return as the 47th President of the United States would have significant implications for U.S.-India relations, as well as for India’s foreign policy and economic interests. Whether Trump is “good” for India depends on various factors, and different stakeholders may assess this differently. Below are some key considerations:
1. Economic and Trade Relations
- Positive Aspects:
- Trump’s previous tenure saw a focus on boosting U.S. businesses, which in some cases benefited Indian firms. For instance, India has strong ties with American tech companies, and the previous administration’s push for “America First” policies sometimes led to mutual benefits in areas like trade and investment in tech, defense, and pharmaceuticals.
- Trump’s advocacy for “Make in America” also led some American companies to consider diversifying their supply chains. India could be a beneficiary of this shift, attracting more investment, especially in sectors like manufacturing and electronics.
- Challenges:
- Trade disputes were one of the hallmarks of Trump’s first term. India and the U.S. faced tensions over tariffs and trade imbalances, with India being one of the countries subject to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
- Trump’s more protectionist stance could lead to renewed trade tensions, although this would depend on the broader geopolitical and economic landscape.
2. Geopolitics and Security
- Positive Aspects:
- Under Trump, the U.S. and India strengthened their defense and security ties, particularly through agreements like the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which allowed for enhanced military cooperation. Trump was a supporter of a stronger U.S.-India partnership to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Trump’s administration saw a more robust approach to regional security, with India being an important player in the strategic calculus of the U.S. in Asia. A return to office might continue to encourage a stronger Indo-U.S. defense relationship.
- Challenges:
- While Trump’s support for India in countering China is largely positive, his “America First” policy also meant that global alliances were at times strained. His potential unpredictability on international issues could create some uncertainty for India’s long-term diplomatic strategy.
3. Immigration and H-1B Visas
- Positive Aspects:
- Indian tech workers have been beneficiaries of H-1B visas, which allow skilled workers to live and work in the U.S. If Trump takes a more business-friendly stance, it could benefit U.S.-based Indian entrepreneurs and tech professionals.
- Challenges:
- Trump’s previous administration took a restrictive stance on immigration and visa policies, especially on the H-1B visa program, which could impact India’s large tech workforce in the U.S. While he did not fully cut the program, any future moves to tighten immigration rules could have negative effects on India’s IT sector, which sends thousands of workers to the U.S. every year.
4. Global Influence and Multilateralism
- Challenges:
- Trump’s more unilateral and sometimes isolationist approach to global governance, including pulling out of international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and the WHO, could make multilateral cooperation more challenging for India. India, which has been an advocate for climate action and multilateral diplomacy, might find this approach at odds with its broader foreign policy goals.
- Positive Aspects:
- However, if Trump’s policy shifts in favor of bilateral trade agreements over multilateral ones, India could negotiate more favorable terms on a one-on-one basis with the U.S.
5. Human Rights and Democracy
- Challenges:
- Trump’s handling of international human rights issues was often seen as less focused compared to other U.S. administrations. For India, which faces criticism from international human rights organizations on issues like religious freedom, press freedom, and treatment of minorities, Trump’s more transactional approach could mean less pressure on these issues from Washington.
- Positive Aspects:
- On the flip side, a Trump administration might also be less vocal on democracy and human rights issues that could be sensitive for India. However, this would depend on the political dynamics of both countries at the time.
Conclusion:
Trump’s return to the presidency would likely bring a continuation of his policies from his first term—strong defense ties, an unpredictable trade approach, and a more transactional foreign policy. For India, this could mean enhanced cooperation in areas like defense, trade, and countering China, but also potential challenges in areas like trade imbalances, immigration, and multilateralism.
India’s ability to navigate these challenges would depend on how it engages with Trump’s policies while safeguarding its own interests on the global stage. For many in India, a pragmatic and flexible approach will be necessary to manage both the opportunities and risks posed by Trump’s leadership.